Neodymium

[UROK]

Amen to that, brother!

Every time I step on a domestic flight in China (several round trips per month), I am glad to see "Boeing" on the outside. (Even though pilots get licensed on a lot less flying hours in China than US and EU ones!)

[Rick Lee]

...in America independent thinking has higher social currency.

Less and less so especially at the public school level.

[el_ingeniero]

Chinese can do high quality as well as anyone in the world. They're just very willing to make a buck by cutting corners. In fact, they're pretty well forced to by the prices foreign countries are willing to pay.

Since 2006, prices in China for food and housing have gone up and up, while wages have remained the same. That's why the cost of Chinese goods seems to go down every year.

My guess is that most Chinese are sick and tired of that game. So the Chinese government has to do something about that, or they know they will get kicked out.

[UROK]

Chinese can do high quality as well as anyone in the world.

Yep, ask Apple (though there are a lot of bad rumours about work pressure at the plant - worker suicides).
Or, note that the lab with the largest genetic sequencing capacity in the world is in China. They can sequence an entire human genome in less than a day!

They're just very willing to make a buck by cutting corners.

Well said! And of course that never happens elsewhere!

In fact, they're pretty well forced to by the prices foreign countries are willing to pay.

As perspicacious a point as anyone has ever uttered on this issue!

Since 2006, prices in China for food and housing have gone up and up, while wages have remained the same. That's why the cost of Chinese goods seems to go down every year. My guess is that most Chinese are sick and tired of that game. So the Chinese government has to do something about that, or they know they will get kicked out.

Inflation leading to social unrest perhaps engendered by events in the Middle East have the government very ansty indeed. Unilever were fined last month for even discussing price hikes internally! And, without democratic institutions, when the incumbent "dynasty" (the Chinese see the CCP as just another dynasty whose star will eventually wane) goes, it all goes. That's the deal here. You get power. You wield it absolutely with strict control of the commentaries (for which today we can substitute infosec control). The profoundly retrospective nature of Chinese culture means that it is for those who come after to judge.

As things stand the Party are in full control. You need their help to do anything. What happens is you gain the trust of a Party official who has a budget. He (always 'he') will loan that money to "friends" to invest in whatever business venture. If you make money you get more and go further up the hierarchy to where there is more cash. The result is that the property bubble has been financed in this way. It is not unusual to meet well-connected people who own several apartments whilst the majority struggle to get a job. A taxi driver who is really good will earn 8-10,000RMB per month. A cycle courier, kitchen worker, or shop assistant would be happy with 1000RMB per month. In Beijing cheap rent for, say 30 square metres, is a couple of thousand RMB per month at least. Add into that millions of graduates who can't find jobs and one can understand why the governement is so concerned.

[Bill Fitzmaurice]

The profoundly retrospective nature of Chinese culture means that it is for those who come after to judge.

+1. The Chinese have seen them come and seen them go, from the Manchus and Mongols to the English and Japanese. When your culture spans 4,000 years a hundred year dynasty is just a minor blip.

[el_ingeniero]

Chinese can do high quality as well as anyone in the world.

Yep, ask Apple (though there are a lot of bad rumours about work pressure at the plant - worker suicides).
Or, note that the lab with the largest genetic sequencing capacity in the world is in China. They can sequence an entire human genome in less than a day!

Not to mention Dell, HP, Lenovo, Toshiba and Asus do the majority of their assembly there. As far as the FoxConn plant in Chengdu where they make Apple gear, a big part of the problem is that upper management really only cares about the numbers that mean a bigger bonus. Come to think of it, that's usually the case when big business profits at the expense of consumers and employees.

They're just very willing to make a buck by cutting corners.

Well said! And of course that never happens elsewhere!

Right. Real estate bubbles, financial crises, mine disasters, polluted groundwater, antibiotic resistance, etc all happen by magic.

In fact, they're pretty well forced to by the prices foreign countries are willing to pay.

As perspicacious a point as anyone has ever uttered on this issue!

Can't claim it as an original insight. Rmemeber when the chairman of Mattel went and apologized to Chairman Hu?

Since 2006, prices in China for food and housing have gone up and up, while wages have remained the same. That's why the cost of Chinese goods seems to go down every year. My guess is that most Chinese are sick and tired of that game. So the Chinese government has to do something about that, or they know they will get kicked out.

Inflation leading to social unrest perhaps engendered by events in the Middle East have the government very ansty indeed. Unilever were fined last month for even discussing price hikes internally! And, without democratic institutions, when the incumbent "dynasty" (the Chinese see the CCP as just another dynasty whose star will eventually wane) goes, it all goes. That's the deal here. You get power. You wield it absolutely with strict control of the commentaries (for which today we can substitute infosec control). The profoundly retrospective nature of Chinese culture means that it is for those who come after to judge.

Every revolution in China is a peasant revolution. The people in Beijing running the CCP know this. I think the party at the province and local levels is less big picture.

Problem is, they pretty much forced the peasants off the land and into the cities, and now the peasants have a new idea of what the good life means. Oops. But factory labor has to come from someplace ...

As things stand the Party are in full control. You need their help to do anything. What happens is you gain the trust of a Party official who has a budget. He (always 'he') will loan that money to "friends" to invest in whatever business venture. If you make money you get more and go further up the hierarchy to where there is more cash. The result is that the property bubble has been financed in this way. It is not unusual to meet well-connected people who own several apartments whilst the majority struggle to get a job. A taxi driver who is really good will earn 8-10,000RMB per month. A cycle courier, kitchen worker, or shop assistant would be happy with 1000RMB per month. In Beijing cheap rent for, say 30 square metres, is a couple of thousand RMB per month at least. Add into that millions of graduates who can't find jobs and one can understand why the governement is so concerned.

That property bubble is everywhere. My fiance's mom in Anshan sold a 2 bedroom apartment for about 125,000 RMB in 2006.
The cost of a 2 bedroom in the same area is now over 400,000 RMB. And they are about to tear down the entire apartment block they live in now, which means that they will probably get the shaft on compensation.

[Mikey]

Sorry to interrupt, but ... does anyone have any idea of when this neodymium shortage may be over? I'm just wondering if there's light at the end of the tunnel, when we may see prices come back down.

[el_ingeniero]

Sorry to interrupt, but ... does anyone have any idea of when this neodymium shortage may be over? I'm just wondering if there's light at the end of the tunnel, when we may see prices come back down.

Not for a year at least.

[UROK]

Sorry to interrupt, but ... does anyone have any idea of when this neodymium shortage may be over? I'm just wondering if there's light at the end of the tunnel, when we may see prices come back down.

Sorry Mikey. Wandered off topic a little here!

I've bookmarked this link from earlier in the thread: http://www.metal-pages.com/metalprices/neodymium/

Still goin' up!

Guess we're waiting on those American mines to come online?

[SeisTres]

Sorry to interrupt, but ... does anyone have any idea of when this neodymium shortage may be over? I'm just wondering if there's light at the end of the tunnel, when we may see prices come back down.

Sorry Mikey. Wandered off topic a little here!

I've bookmarked this link from earlier in the thread: http://www.metal-pages.com/metalprices/neodymium/

Still goin' up!

Guess we're waiting on those American mines to come online?

Wow, I hadn't seen that. It seems just now we're having anther spike like the fist one. Well, so much for having the 30xxLF at around $300. You better get 'em quick before they up another $100

I'll stick with the extra 8lbs.

[WB]

Guess we're waiting on those American mines to come online?

I'm not.

Those extra mines will only be profitable with higher prices, which is the logical reason to open a mine. Not necessarily saying logic rules in this world.

Anyways, I'm not currently in possession of a working crystal ball, so I'll go out on a limb and say you'll never see cheap neodymium prices again as far as our purposes here are concerned. Sure, they'll fluctuate as any commodity does, but I think it's safe to say the neo driver costs will never be lower than they are now, meaning they will keep getting more expensive.

[Mikey]

Sheesh ... guess they're like drug dealers; give 'em a taste, get 'em hooked, drive the prices through the roof.

I hope Eminence goes back to the drawing board for some new "boat anchor" drivers.

[WB]

Sheesh ... guess they're like drug dealers; give 'em a taste, get 'em hooked, drive the prices through the roof.

Perhaps, but I don't think prices going thru the roof is the miners, producers, or suppliers fault. They have no control over the root cause. Price inflation is actually currency devaluation.

[UROK]

Just checked: http://www.metal-pages.com/metalprices/neodymium/

Heading in right direction now at least...

[Gregory East]

Been doing some reading on this neo "shortage". As far as I can work out it's just the lack of certainty of supply of magnets that has made the neo driver price jump, not the price of the neodymium, which is a few dollars per magnet. Hope yet that things may stabilise at old prices plus an extra few bucks for the Chinese per pound of Neo.